Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
Forecasts for this seat as of 2026-10-20. Partisan lean: R+5.3. Margins are Democratic minus Republican.
| Source | Margin | P(D wins) | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling | D+3.0 | — | 5 |
| Markets | — | 65% | 3 |
| Academic | R+6.5 | 20% | 6 |
| Class model | R+8.9 | 23% | 1 |
“Sources” counts the forecasts in each average. “Not shown” counts forecasts that are in the average but withheld individually.
The last four months.
This is a special election, so there is no earlier regular election for this seat to show.