Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
Forecasts for this seat as of 2026-09-30. Partisan lean: R+5.27. Margins are Democratic minus Republican.
| Source | Margin | P(D wins) | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling | D+4.48 | — | 6 |
| Markets · one forecast | — | 62% | 1 |
| Academic | R+7.6 | 16% | 5 |
| Class model | R+9.09 | 23% | 1 |
“Sources” counts the forecasts in each average. “Not shown” counts forecasts that are in the average but withheld individually.
The last four months.
This is a special election, so there is no earlier regular election for this seat to show.