Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
Forecasts for this seat as of 2026-09-30. Partisan lean: R+1.4. Margins are Democratic minus Republican.
| Source | Margin | P(D wins) | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling | D+8.87 | — | 6 |
| Markets · one forecast | — | 95% | 1 |
| Academic | D+4.47 | 72% | 5 |
| Class model | D+5.25 | 67% | 1 |
“Sources” counts the forecasts in each average. “Not shown” counts forecasts that are in the average but withheld individually.
The last four months.
The last five regular elections for this seat (2020, 2014 and earlier). Results from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
| Year | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R+1.8 | Thom Tillis |
| 2014 | R+1.6 | Thom Tillis |
| 2008 | D+8.7 | Kay Hagan |
| 2002 | R+8.7 | Elizabeth H. Dole |
| 1996 | R+6.8 | Jesse Helms |