Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
Forecasts for this seat as of 2026-09-30. Partisan lean: R+5.39. Margins are Democratic minus Republican.
| Source | Margin | P(D wins) | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling | R+6.1 | — | 3 |
| Markets · one forecast | — | 15% | 1 |
| Academic | R+7.8 | 15% | 5 |
| Class model | R+9.29 | 22% | 1 |
“Sources” counts the forecasts in each average. “Not shown” counts forecasts that are in the average but withheld individually.
The last four months.
This is a special election, so there is no earlier regular election for this seat to show.