Six ways of forecasting the 2026 midterms, collected every day and shown side by side. The display is the disagreement between methods, not another trend line.
What each family of methods says about this seat, as of 2026-09-09. The state's partisan baseline is R+6.45. A positive margin is Democratic.
| Method | Margin | P(D wins) | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling | R+7.3 | 3% | 8 |
| Fundamentals | R+8.13 | 15% | 5 |
| Prediction markets · single source, not a consensus | — | 62% | 1 |
Methods with no row published nothing for this race on this date. Counts are contributing sources; “withheld” are contributors folded into the average but not nameable during the cycle.
Each line is a method family's average for this race, over the last four months.
The seat model pushes every method's national tide through the same machinery. This is what each implies for this race.
| Scenario | Margin | P(D wins) |
|---|---|---|
| academic_bew | R+11.28 | 2% |
| academic_economic_pessimism | D+0.04 | 50% |
| academic_political_history | R+13.14 | 1% |
| academic_referendum | R+7.96 | 7% |
| class_fundamentals | R+5.07 | 17% |
| class_polling | R+9.57 | 4% |
| fair | R+14.54 | 0% |
| polling_reconstructed | R+10.82 | 2% |