Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
All 35 contests on the 2026 ballot, closest first, as of 2026-09-30. The margin is the polling average where there is one, and the class model otherwise. Margins are Democratic minus Republican.
| Race | Margin | Partisan lean | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | R+0.8 | R+8.03 | polling |
| Iowa | D+1.38 | R+6.09 | polling |
| Maine | D+1.5 | D+3.82 | polling |
| Alaska | D+1.92 | R+6.45 | polling |
| Minnesota | D+2.25 | D+2.53 | polling |
| South Carolina | R+3.07 | R+8.28 | polling |
| Michigan | D+3.1 | R+0.19 | polling |
| Texas | D+3.32 | R+5.92 | polling |
| Ohio | D+4.48 | R+5.27 | polling |
| Florida | R+6.1 | R+5.39 | polling |
| Georgia | D+7.77 | R+0.8 | polling |
| North Carolina | D+8.87 | R+1.4 | polling |
| Louisiana | R+9.92 | R+10.75 | class model |
| New Hampshire | D+10.74 | D+1.99 | class model |
| Alabama | R+16.5 | R+14.81 | class model |
| Kentucky | R+16.71 | R+14.94 | class model |
| Nebraska | R+17.2 | R+10.27 | class model |
| Illinois | D+17.8 | D+6.34 | class model |
| Mississippi | R+18.03 | R+10.78 | class model |
| Oklahoma | R+20.6 | R+17.34 | class model |
| Virginia | D+21.24 | D+3.49 | class model |
| New Mexico | D+21.55 | D+3.68 | class model |
| New Jersey | D+22.5 | D+4.27 | class model |
| Montana | R+22.83 | R+9.82 | polling |
| Tennessee | R+23.67 | R+14.26 | class model |
| South Dakota | R+24.17 | R+14.57 | class model |
| Colorado | D+25.26 | D+5.97 | class model |
| Arkansas | R+25.37 | R+15.31 | class model |
| Oregon | D+27.99 | D+7.65 | class model |
| Rhode Island | D+28.49 | D+7.96 | class model |
| Delaware | D+28.57 | D+8.01 | class model |
| Idaho | R+29.8 | R+18.04 | class model |
| Wyoming | R+30.15 | R+23.23 | class model |
| West Virginia | R+34.54 | R+20.96 | class model |
| Massachusetts | D+38.27 | D+13.99 | class model |