Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
All 35 contests on the 2026 ballot, closest first, as of 2026-10-20. Margins are Democratic minus Republican. The polling margin is the race's polling average, where there is one, and the class model margin is the class model's prediction for every race. Races are ordered by the polling margin where there is one and by the class model margin otherwise.
| Race | Polling margin | Lean (in margin points) | Expected margin* | Polls vs. expected (polling margin − expected) | Class model margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | D+0.5 | R+12.2 | R+3.9 | D+4.4 | R+2.1 |
| Kansas | D+0.7 | R+16.1 | R+7.8 | D+8.4 | R+13.3 |
| Nebraska † | R+1.1 | R+20.5 | R+12.3 | I+11.2 | R+17.0 |
| South Carolina | R+1.8 | R+16.6 | R+8.3 | D+6.5 | R+13.8 |
| Maine | D+2.1 | D+7.6 | D+15.9 | R+13.8 | D+5.9 |
| Alaska | D+2.6 | R+12.9 | R+4.6 | D+7.2 | R+10.8 |
| Texas | D+2.7 | R+11.8 | R+3.6 | D+6.2 | R+1.9 |
| Ohio | D+3.0 | R+10.5 | R+2.3 | D+5.3 | R+8.9 |
| Michigan | D+3.1 | R+0.4 | D+7.9 | R+4.8 | D+7.4 |
| Minnesota | D+3.3 | D+5.1 | D+13.3 | R+10.1 | D+11.8 |
| Florida | R+6.8 | R+10.8 | R+2.5 | R+4.3 | R+9.1 |
| Georgia | D+8.5 | R+1.6 | D+6.7 | D+1.9 | D+14.5 |
| Louisiana | — | R+21.5 | R+13.2 | — | R+9.7 |
| North Carolina | D+9.9 | R+2.8 | D+5.5 | D+4.4 | D+5.5 |
| New Hampshire | — | D+4.0 | D+12.3 | — | D+11.0 |
| Alabama | — | R+29.6 | R+21.3 | — | R+16.3 |
| Kentucky | — | R+29.9 | R+21.6 | — | R+16.5 |
| Mississippi | — | R+21.6 | R+13.3 | — | R+17.8 |
| Illinois | — | D+12.7 | D+21.0 | — | D+18.0 |
| Oklahoma | — | R+34.7 | R+26.4 | — | R+20.4 |
| Virginia | — | D+7.0 | D+15.3 | — | D+21.5 |
| New Mexico | — | D+7.4 | D+15.6 | — | D+21.8 |
| New Jersey | — | D+8.5 | D+16.8 | — | D+22.7 |
| Tennessee | — | R+28.5 | R+20.2 | — | R+23.4 |
| Montana | R+23.6 | R+19.6 | R+11.4 | R+12.3 | R+8.2 |
| South Dakota | — | R+29.1 | R+20.9 | — | R+23.9 |
| Arkansas | — | R+30.6 | R+22.3 | — | R+25.1 |
| Colorado | — | D+11.9 | D+20.2 | — | D+25.5 |
| Massachusetts | D+26.2 | D+28.0 | D+36.3 | R+10.1 | D+38.5 |
| Oregon | — | D+15.3 | D+23.6 | — | D+28.2 |
| Rhode Island | — | D+15.9 | D+24.2 | — | D+28.7 |
| Delaware | — | D+16.0 | D+24.3 | — | D+28.8 |
| Idaho | — | R+36.1 | R+27.8 | — | R+29.6 |
| Wyoming | — | R+46.5 | R+38.2 | — | R+29.9 |
| West Virginia | — | R+41.9 | R+33.6 | — | R+34.3 |
*Expected margin = national polling margin (D+8.3) + lean in margin points: what the state would be expected to do in this year's national environment. Polls vs. expected = polling margin − expected margin: how far the race's current polling average runs ahead of (D+) or behind (R+) what the lean and the national environment predict, shown only for races with a polling average. Lean in margin points is twice the state's partisan lean in vote share (the "partisan lean" on each race page).
† Nebraska: the main opponent of Republican Pete Ricketts is Dan Osborn, an independent. This race's polling margin, polls vs. expected and class model margin compare Dan Osborn with Pete Ricketts, not a Democrat with a Republican; I+ means Dan Osborn is ahead. The lean and expected margin are the usual Democratic-Republican baseline for the state.