Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
All 35 contests on the 2026 ballot, closest first, as of 2026-10-12. Margins are Democratic minus Republican. The polling margin is the race's polling average, where there is one, and the class model margin is the class model's prediction for every race. Races are ordered by the polling margin where there is one and by the class model margin otherwise.
| Race | Polling margin | Lean (in margin points) | Expected margin* | Over-performance | Class model margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | D+0.7 | R+16.1 | R+7.7 | D+8.4 | R+13.4 |
| Iowa | D+1.1 | R+12.2 | R+3.8 | D+4.9 | R+2.2 |
| South Carolina | R+1.8 | R+16.6 | R+8.2 | D+6.4 | R+13.8 |
| Maine | D+2.0 | D+7.6 | D+16.0 | R+14.0 | D+5.8 |
| Alaska | D+2.4 | R+12.9 | R+4.5 | D+6.9 | R+10.9 |
| Minnesota | D+3.0 | D+5.1 | D+13.5 | R+10.5 | D+11.8 |
| Texas | D+3.4 | R+11.8 | R+3.4 | D+6.8 | R+1.9 |
| Ohio | D+3.4 | R+10.5 | R+2.1 | D+5.6 | R+8.9 |
| Michigan | D+3.5 | R+0.4 | D+8.0 | R+4.5 | D+7.4 |
| Florida | R+6.6 | R+10.8 | R+2.4 | R+4.2 | R+9.1 |
| Georgia | D+8.5 | R+1.6 | D+6.8 | D+1.7 | D+14.4 |
| North Carolina | D+9.1 | R+2.8 | D+5.6 | D+3.5 | D+5.4 |
| Louisiana | — | R+21.5 | R+13.1 | — | R+9.8 |
| New Hampshire | — | D+4.0 | D+12.4 | — | D+10.9 |
| Alabama | — | R+29.6 | R+21.2 | — | R+16.4 |
| Kentucky | — | R+29.9 | R+21.5 | — | R+16.6 |
| Nebraska | — | R+20.5 | R+12.1 | — | R+17.1 |
| Mississippi | — | R+21.6 | R+13.2 | — | R+17.9 |
| Illinois | — | D+12.7 | D+21.1 | — | D+17.9 |
| Oklahoma | — | R+34.7 | R+26.3 | — | R+20.4 |
| Virginia | — | D+7.0 | D+15.4 | — | D+21.4 |
| New Mexico | — | D+7.4 | D+15.8 | — | D+21.7 |
| New Jersey | — | D+8.5 | D+16.9 | — | D+22.7 |
| Montana | R+22.7 | R+19.6 | R+11.2 | R+11.5 | R+8.3 |
| Tennessee | — | R+28.5 | R+20.1 | — | R+23.5 |
| South Dakota | — | R+29.1 | R+20.7 | — | R+24.0 |
| Arkansas | — | R+30.6 | R+22.2 | — | R+25.2 |
| Colorado | — | D+11.9 | D+20.3 | — | D+25.4 |
| Oregon | — | D+15.3 | D+23.7 | — | D+28.1 |
| Rhode Island | — | D+15.9 | D+24.3 | — | D+28.6 |
| Delaware | — | D+16.0 | D+24.4 | — | D+28.7 |
| Idaho | — | R+36.1 | R+27.7 | — | R+29.6 |
| Wyoming | — | R+46.5 | R+38.1 | — | R+30.0 |
| West Virginia | — | R+41.9 | R+33.5 | — | R+34.4 |
| Massachusetts | — | D+28.0 | D+36.4 | — | D+38.4 |
*Expected margin = national polling margin (D+8.4) + lean in margin points: what the state would be expected to do in this year's national environment. Over-performance = polling margin − expected margin, shown only for races with a polling average. Lean in margin points is twice the state's partisan lean in vote share (the "partisan lean" on each race page).