Six ways of forecasting the 2026 midterms, collected every day and shown side by side. The display is the disagreement between methods, not another trend line.
All 35 contests on the 2026 ballot, closest first, as of 2026-09-09. The margin shown is the polling average where there is one, and the fundamentals model otherwise. A positive margin is Democratic.
| Race | Margin | Baseline | From |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | R+0.97 | R+5.92 | polling |
| Ohio | R+2.77 | R+5.27 | polling |
| Iowa | R+3.04 | R+6.09 | polling |
| Michigan | D+4.14 | R+0.19 | polling |
| Maine | D+4.98 | D+3.82 | polling |
| North Carolina | D+5.83 | R+1.4 | polling |
| Alaska | R+7.3 | R+6.45 | polling |
| Florida | R+8.63 | R+5.39 | polling |
| Georgia | D+9.35 | R+0.8 | polling |
| Minnesota | D+9.36 | D+2.53 | polling |
| New Hampshire | D+9.39 | D+1.99 | polling |
| Kansas | R+10.86 | R+8.03 | polling |
| Montana | R+12.05 | R+9.82 | polling |
| South Carolina | R+13.22 | R+8.28 | polling |
| Nebraska | R+16.49 | R+10.27 | polling |
| Illinois | D+16.55 | D+6.34 | polling |
| Louisiana | R+17.28 | R+10.75 | polling |
| Mississippi | R+17.33 | R+10.78 | polling |
| Virginia | D+17.55 | D+3.49 | polling |
| New Mexico | D+17.87 | D+3.68 | polling |
| Alabama | R+18.27 | R+14.81 | polling |
| Kentucky | R+18.48 | R+14.94 | polling |
| New Jersey | D+18.84 | D+4.27 | polling |
| Colorado | D+21.64 | D+5.97 | polling |
| Oklahoma | R+22.43 | R+17.34 | polling |
| Tennessee | R+23.06 | R+14.26 | polling |
| South Dakota | R+23.57 | R+14.57 | polling |
| Oregon | D+24.4 | D+7.65 | polling |
| Arkansas | R+24.79 | R+15.31 | polling |
| Rhode Island | D+24.91 | D+7.96 | polling |
| Delaware | D+24.99 | D+8.01 | polling |
| Idaho | R+29.28 | R+18.04 | polling |
| Wyoming | R+32.13 | R+23.23 | polling |
| West Virginia | R+34.09 | R+20.96 | polling |
| Massachusetts | D+34.84 | D+13.99 | polling |