Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls,
prediction markets, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model,
updated daily through Election Day 2026.
By Kevin DeLuca, Department of Political Science, Yale University
Election day 3 Nov 2026— days outSnapshot 2026-11-10660 dates on the chart
This tracker is retired. Its final update was on
November 3, 2026, and the numbers on these pages are from that snapshot.
For the PLSC 2219 forecast contest, see the
forecast gallery.
Contest
Seats in order
Every Senate seat, ordered
from most Democratic to most Republican. Bars are the class
model's expected margin. Dashed lines are each source's seat count.
Bar colour is certainty:safe D · toss-up · safe R
Academic 50.0
Polling 52.7
Markets 52.7the seat that decides control
Threshold
Seat
Expected margin
P(D)
50th — a tie, broken by the vice-president
TX
R+1.8
44%
51st — a majority
IA
R+2.1
43%
Class model: Democratic seats
80% 47–53
50
Class model: chance of a majority
43%
Margins beyond ±20 points are cut
off at the edge of the chart. Senate totals include
34 Democratic seats not up this year.
Class model
Democratic-leaning
7 of the 20 races where
the class model gives each side at least a 5% chance.
Closest first.
State
Margin
P(D)
Polling
NC
D+5.5
68%
D+11.2
ME
D+5.9
69%
D+4.5
MI
D+7.5
73%
D+5.2
NH
D+11.0
82%
D+8.3
MN
D+11.9
84%
D+5.8
GA
D+14.6
88%
D+9.4
IL
D+18.1
93%
–
Class model
Republican-leaning
13 of the 20 races where
the class model gives each side at least a 5% chance.
Closest first.
State
Margin
P(D)
Polling
TX
R+1.8
44%
D+3.2
IA
R+2.1
43%
D+0.4
MT
R+8.1
25%
R+23.6
OH
R+8.8
23%
D+2.6
FL
R+9.0
23%
R+6.0
LA
R+9.7
21%
–
AK
R+10.7
19%
D+2.1
KS
R+13.3
14%
D+4.3
SC
R+13.7
13%
R+1.2
AL
R+16.2
9%
withheld
KY
R+16.4
9%
–
NE
R+16.9
8%
R+1.9
MS
R+17.8
7%
–
Margin and P(D) are from the class model. Polling is
the average of the polling averages listed in each race's Wikipedia
article (for example RealClearPolitics, 270toWin and Race to the WH),
shown when at least three are available. In Nebraska the Democratic side
is the independent Dan Osborn.
Seats in order
The 45 districts closest to
the majority line, ordered from most Democratic to most Republican.
Bars are the class
model's expected margin. Dashed lines are each source's seat count.
Bar colour is certainty:safe D · toss-up · safe R
Academic 232.5
Polling 233.3
Markets 247.2the seat that decides control
Threshold
Seat
Expected margin
P(D)
218th — a majority
VA-2
D+2.5
61%
Class model: Democratic seats
80% 221–257
237
Class model: chance of a majority
95%
Margins beyond ±10 points are cut
off at the edge of the chart.
Class model
Above the line
Seats 211–233,
ordered by expected margin.
Seat
District
Margin
P(D)
211
OH-9
D+8.3
83%
212
AZ-1
D+7.6
81%
213
NC-1
D+7.4
80%
214
AL-2
D+4.9
71%
215
NY-17
D+4.9
71%
216
MI-10
D+4.7
70%
217
PA-1
D+3.5
66%
218 ◀
VA-2
D+2.5
61%
219
NJ-7
D+2.3
61%
220
CO-8
D+2.1
59%
221
CA-22
D+1.9
59%
222
FL-9
D+1.8
58%
223
ME-2
D+1.8
58%
224
AZ-6
D+1.8
58%
225
IA-2
D+1.6
57%
226
MI-7
D+1.5
57%
227
FL-22
D+1.5
57%
228
TX-35
D+1.3
56%
229
PA-7
D+0.2
51%
230
MT-1
R+0.2
49%
231
FL-7
R+0.5
48%
232
IA-3
R+0.8
46%
233
WI-1
R+1.2
44%
Class model
Below the line
Seats 234–255,
ordered by expected margin.
Seat
District
Margin
P(D)
234
SC-1
R+1.4
44%
235
FL-16
R+1.6
43%
236
PA-10
R+2.2
40%
237
MI-4
R+2.4
39%
238
VA-1
R+2.5
39%
239
TX-23
R+2.6
38%
240
NV-2
R+2.7
38%
241
KY-6
R+3.3
35%
242
OH-10
R+3.4
35%
243
FL-11
R+3.4
35%
244
WI-3
R+3.8
33%
245
PA-8
R+4.1
32%
246
IA-1
R+4.1
32%
247
GA-1
R+4.2
31%
248
MO-2
R+4.8
29%
249
NY-1
R+4.9
29%
250
NC-11
R+4.9
29%
251
OH-15
R+5.4
27%
252
TX-32
R+5.4
27%
253
FL-2
R+5.5
27%
254
CO-3
R+6.2
24%
255
CO-5
R+6.3
24%
Many districts share the same margin, so the order
within a tied group is arbitrary.
◀ marks the seat that reaches the majority. Showing
45 of 435 districts.