← kevinmdeluca.com  ·  PLSC 2219 · Yale University

Election Forecast Tracker

Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-09-30 619 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days. The numbers below are from the snapshot date above.
Contest

Seats in order

Every Senate seat, ordered from most Democratic to most Republican. Bars are the class model's expected margin. Dashed lines are each source's seat count.

R+20+R+10EVEND+10D+20+MA — expected D+38.3, P(D) 100%. Democratic seat number 35.MADE — expected D+28.6, P(D) 99%. Democratic seat number 36.DERI — expected D+28.5, P(D) 99%. Democratic seat number 37.RIOR — expected D+28.0, P(D) 99%. Democratic seat number 38.ORCO — expected D+25.3, P(D) 98%. Democratic seat number 39.CONJ — expected D+22.5, P(D) 97%. Democratic seat number 40.NJNM — expected D+21.6, P(D) 96%. Democratic seat number 41.NMVA — expected D+21.2, P(D) 96%. Democratic seat number 42.VAIL — expected D+17.8, P(D) 93%. Democratic seat number 43.ILGA — expected D+14.3, P(D) 88%. Democratic seat number 44.GAMN — expected D+11.6, P(D) 83%. Democratic seat number 45.MNNH — expected D+10.7, P(D) 81%. Democratic seat number 46.NHMI — expected D+7.2, P(D) 72%. Democratic seat number 47.MIME — expected D+5.7, P(D) 68%. Democratic seat number 48.MENC — expected D+5.2, P(D) 67%. Democratic seat number 49.NCTX — expected R+2.1, P(D) 43%. Democratic seat number 50.TXIA — expected R+2.4, P(D) 42%. Democratic seat number 51.IAMT — expected R+8.4, P(D) 24%. Democratic seat number 52.MTOH — expected R+9.1, P(D) 23%. Democratic seat number 53.OHFL — expected R+9.3, P(D) 22%. Democratic seat number 54.FLLA — expected R+9.9, P(D) 21%. Democratic seat number 55.LAAK — expected R+11.0, P(D) 18%. Democratic seat number 56.AKKS — expected R+13.6, P(D) 13%. Democratic seat number 57.KSSC — expected R+14.0, P(D) 12%. Democratic seat number 58.SCAL — expected R+16.5, P(D) 9%. Democratic seat number 59.ALKY — expected R+16.7, P(D) 8%. Democratic seat number 60.KYNE — expected R+17.2, P(D) 8%. Democratic seat number 61.NEMS — expected R+18.0, P(D) 7%. Democratic seat number 62.MSOK — expected R+20.6, P(D) 4%. Democratic seat number 63.OKTN — expected R+23.7, P(D) 3%. Democratic seat number 64.TNSD — expected R+24.2, P(D) 2%. Democratic seat number 65.SDAR — expected R+25.4, P(D) 2%. Democratic seat number 66.ARID — expected R+29.8, P(D) 1%. Democratic seat number 67.IDWY — expected R+30.1, P(D) 1%. Democratic seat number 68.WYWV — expected R+34.5, P(D) 0%. Democratic seat number 69.WVAcademic: 49.6 Democratic seatsPolling: 49.9 Democratic seatsMarkets: 50.9 Democratic seats50th · TX51st · IA394449545964← 34 D seats not on the ballot31 R seats not on the ballot →Democratic seat count
Bar colour is certainty: safe D · toss-up · safe R
Academic 49.6 Polling 49.9 Markets 50.9 the seat that decides control
ThresholdSeatExpected marginP(D)
50th — a tie, broken by the vice-presidentTXR+2.143%
51st — a majorityIAR+2.442%
Class model: Democratic seats80% 47–5350
Class model: chance of a majority41%

Margins beyond ±20 points are cut off at the edge of the chart. Senate totals include 34 Democratic seats not up this year.

Class model

Democratic-leaning

12 of the 29 unsettled races. Closest first.

StateMarginP(D)Polling
NCD+5.267%D+8.9
MED+5.768%D+1.5
MID+7.272%D+3.1
NHD+10.781%–
MND+11.683%D+2.2
GAD+14.388%D+7.8
ILD+17.893%–
VAD+21.296%–
NMD+21.696%–
NJD+22.597%–
COD+25.398%–
ORD+28.099%–
Class model

Republican-leaning

17 of the 29 unsettled races. Closest first.

StateMarginP(D)Polling
TXR+2.143%D+3.3
IAR+2.442%D+1.4
MTR+8.424%R+22.8
OHR+9.123%D+4.5
FLR+9.322%R+6.1
LAR+9.921%–
AKR+11.018%D+1.9
KSR+13.613%R+0.8
SCR+14.012%R+3.1
ALR+16.59%–
KYR+16.78%–
NER+17.28%–
MSR+18.07%–
OKR+20.64%–
TNR+23.73%–
SDR+24.22%–
ARR+25.42%withheld

Margin and P(D) are from the class model. Polling is the average of the polling averages listed in each race's Wikipedia article (for example RealClearPolitics, 270toWin and Race to the WH), shown when at least three are available. In Nebraska the Democratic side is the independent Dan Osborn.

Seats in order

The 45 districts closest to the majority line, ordered from most Democratic to most Republican. Bars are the class model's expected margin. Dashed lines are each source's seat count.

R+15+R+7.5EVEND+7.5D+15+WA-3 — expected D+12.8, P(D) 93%. Democratic seat number 204.WA-3NH-1 — expected D+11.7, P(D) 91%. Democratic seat number 205.NH-1CA-6 — expected D+11.0, P(D) 90%. Democratic seat number 206.CA-6FL-25 — expected D+9.2, P(D) 85%. Democratic seat number 207.FL-25TX-34 — expected D+8.3, P(D) 83%. Democratic seat number 208.TX-34TX-28 — expected D+8.1, P(D) 82%. Democratic seat number 209.TX-28FL-14 — expected D+8.0, P(D) 82%. Democratic seat number 210.FL-14OH-9 — expected D+7.9, P(D) 82%. Democratic seat number 211.OH-9AZ-1 — expected D+7.2, P(D) 80%. Democratic seat number 212.AZ-1NC-1 — expected D+7.1, P(D) 79%. Democratic seat number 213.NC-1AL-2 — expected D+4.6, P(D) 70%. Democratic seat number 214.AL-2NY-17 — expected D+4.6, P(D) 70%. Democratic seat number 215.NY-17MI-10 — expected D+4.3, P(D) 69%. Democratic seat number 216.MI-10PA-1 — expected D+3.2, P(D) 64%. Democratic seat number 217.PA-1VA-2 — expected D+2.2, P(D) 60%. Democratic seat number 218.VA-2NJ-7 — expected D+2.0, P(D) 59%. Democratic seat number 219.NJ-7CO-8 — expected D+1.7, P(D) 58%. Democratic seat number 220.CO-8CA-22 — expected D+1.6, P(D) 57%. Democratic seat number 221.CA-22FL-9 — expected D+1.5, P(D) 57%. Democratic seat number 222.FL-9ME-2 — expected D+1.5, P(D) 57%. Democratic seat number 223.ME-2AZ-6 — expected D+1.4, P(D) 57%. Democratic seat number 224.AZ-6IA-2 — expected D+1.3, P(D) 56%. Democratic seat number 225.IA-2MI-7 — expected D+1.2, P(D) 55%. Democratic seat number 226.MI-7FL-22 — expected D+1.1, P(D) 55%. Democratic seat number 227.FL-22TX-35 — expected D+1.0, P(D) 54%. Democratic seat number 228.TX-35PA-7 — expected R+0.1, P(D) 50%. Democratic seat number 229.PA-7MT-1 — expected R+0.5, P(D) 48%. Democratic seat number 230.MT-1FL-7 — expected R+0.9, P(D) 46%. Democratic seat number 231.FL-7IA-3 — expected R+1.1, P(D) 45%. Democratic seat number 232.IA-3WI-1 — expected R+1.6, P(D) 43%. Democratic seat number 233.WI-1SC-1 — expected R+1.8, P(D) 42%. Democratic seat number 234.SC-1FL-16 — expected R+1.9, P(D) 41%. Democratic seat number 235.FL-16PA-10 — expected R+2.5, P(D) 39%. Democratic seat number 236.PA-10MI-4 — expected R+2.7, P(D) 38%. Democratic seat number 237.MI-4VA-1 — expected R+2.8, P(D) 37%. Democratic seat number 238.VA-1TX-23 — expected R+3.0, P(D) 37%. Democratic seat number 239.TX-23NV-2 — expected R+3.0, P(D) 37%. Democratic seat number 240.NV-2KY-6 — expected R+3.7, P(D) 34%. Democratic seat number 241.KY-6OH-10 — expected R+3.7, P(D) 34%. Democratic seat number 242.OH-10FL-11 — expected R+3.7, P(D) 34%. Democratic seat number 243.FL-11WI-3 — expected R+4.1, P(D) 32%. Democratic seat number 244.WI-3PA-8 — expected R+4.4, P(D) 31%. Democratic seat number 245.PA-8IA-1 — expected R+4.4, P(D) 31%. Democratic seat number 246.IA-1GA-1 — expected R+4.6, P(D) 30%. Democratic seat number 247.GA-1MO-2 — expected R+5.2, P(D) 28%. Democratic seat number 248.MO-2Academic: 228.8 Democratic seatsPolling: 232.3 Democratic seatsMarkets: 234.6 Democratic seats218th · VA-2208213218223228233238243← 203 safe Democratic seats187 safe Republican seats →Democratic seat count
Bar colour is certainty: safe D · toss-up · safe R
Academic 228.8 Polling 232.3 Markets 234.6 the seat that decides control
ThresholdSeatExpected marginP(D)
218th — a majorityVA-2D+2.260%
Class model: Democratic seats80% 220–255236
Class model: chance of a majority94%

Margins beyond ±15 points are cut off at the edge of the chart.

Class model

Above the line

Seats 204–226, ordered by expected margin.

SeatDistrictMarginP(D)
204WA-3D+12.893%
205NH-1D+11.791%
206CA-6D+11.090%
207FL-25D+9.285%
208TX-34D+8.383%
209TX-28D+8.182%
210FL-14D+8.082%
211OH-9D+7.982%
212AZ-1D+7.280%
213NC-1D+7.179%
214AL-2D+4.670%
215NY-17D+4.670%
216MI-10D+4.369%
217PA-1D+3.264%
218 ◀VA-2D+2.260%
219NJ-7D+2.059%
220CO-8D+1.758%
221CA-22D+1.657%
222FL-9D+1.557%
223ME-2D+1.557%
224AZ-6D+1.457%
225IA-2D+1.356%
226MI-7D+1.255%
Class model

Below the line

Seats 227–248, ordered by expected margin.

SeatDistrictMarginP(D)
227FL-22D+1.155%
228TX-35D+1.054%
229PA-7R+0.150%
230MT-1R+0.548%
231FL-7R+0.946%
232IA-3R+1.145%
233WI-1R+1.643%
234SC-1R+1.842%
235FL-16R+1.941%
236PA-10R+2.539%
237MI-4R+2.738%
238VA-1R+2.837%
239TX-23R+3.037%
240NV-2R+3.037%
241KY-6R+3.734%
242OH-10R+3.734%
243FL-11R+3.734%
244WI-3R+4.132%
245PA-8R+4.431%
246IA-1R+4.431%
247GA-1R+4.630%
248MO-2R+5.228%

Many districts share the same margin, so the order within a tied group is arbitrary.

◀ marks the seat that reaches the majority. Showing 45 of 435 districts.