Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls,
prediction markets, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model,
updated daily.
Election day 3 Nov 2026— days outSnapshot 2026-10-20639 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days.
The numbers below are from the snapshot date above.
Contest
Seats in order
Every Senate seat, ordered
from most Democratic to most Republican. Bars are the class
model's expected margin. Dashed lines are each source's seat count.
Bar colour is certainty:safe D · toss-up · safe R
Academic 50.0
Markets 50.9
Polling 52.2the seat that decides control
Threshold
Seat
Expected margin
P(D)
50th — a tie, broken by the vice-president
TX
R+1.9
44%
51st — a majority
IA
R+2.1
43%
Class model: Democratic seats
80% 47–53
50
Class model: chance of a majority
43%
Margins beyond ±20 points are cut
off at the edge of the chart. Senate totals include
34 Democratic seats not up this year.
Class model
Democratic-leaning
7 of the 20 races where
the class model gives each side at least a 5% chance.
Closest first.
State
Margin
P(D)
Polling
NC
D+5.5
67%
D+9.9
ME
D+5.9
69%
D+2.1
MI
D+7.4
73%
D+3.1
NH
D+11.0
82%
–
MN
D+11.8
84%
D+3.3
GA
D+14.5
88%
D+8.5
IL
D+18.0
93%
–
Class model
Republican-leaning
13 of the 20 races where
the class model gives each side at least a 5% chance.
Closest first.
State
Margin
P(D)
Polling
TX
R+1.9
44%
D+2.7
IA
R+2.1
43%
D+0.5
MT
R+8.2
25%
R+23.6
OH
R+8.9
23%
D+3.0
FL
R+9.1
23%
R+6.8
LA
R+9.7
21%
–
AK
R+10.8
19%
D+2.6
KS
R+13.3
14%
D+0.7
SC
R+13.8
13%
R+1.8
AL
R+16.3
9%
–
KY
R+16.5
9%
–
NE
R+17.0
8%
R+1.1
MS
R+17.8
7%
–
Margin and P(D) are from the class model. Polling is
the average of the polling averages listed in each race's Wikipedia
article (for example RealClearPolitics, 270toWin and Race to the WH),
shown when at least three are available. In Nebraska the Democratic side
is the independent Dan Osborn.
Seats in order
The 45 districts closest to
the majority line, ordered from most Democratic to most Republican.
Bars are the class
model's expected margin. Dashed lines are each source's seat count.
Bar colour is certainty:safe D · toss-up · safe R
Polling 232.7
Academic 233.1
Markets 234.4the seat that decides control
Threshold
Seat
Expected margin
P(D)
218th — a majority
VA-2
D+2.5
61%
Class model: Democratic seats
80% 221–257
237
Class model: chance of a majority
95%
Margins beyond ±15 points are cut
off at the edge of the chart.
Class model
Above the line
Seats 204–226,
ordered by expected margin.
Seat
District
Margin
P(D)
204
WA-3
D+13.1
93%
205
NH-1
D+12.0
91%
206
CA-6
D+11.2
90%
207
FL-25
D+9.5
86%
208
TX-34
D+8.6
84%
209
TX-28
D+8.4
83%
210
FL-14
D+8.3
83%
211
OH-9
D+8.2
83%
212
AZ-1
D+7.5
81%
213
NC-1
D+7.4
80%
214
AL-2
D+4.9
71%
215
NY-17
D+4.8
71%
216
MI-10
D+4.6
70%
217
PA-1
D+3.5
65%
218 ◀
VA-2
D+2.5
61%
219
NJ-7
D+2.3
60%
220
CO-8
D+2.0
59%
221
CA-22
D+1.9
58%
222
FL-9
D+1.8
58%
223
ME-2
D+1.8
58%
224
AZ-6
D+1.7
58%
225
IA-2
D+1.6
57%
226
MI-7
D+1.5
57%
Class model
Below the line
Seats 227–248,
ordered by expected margin.
Seat
District
Margin
P(D)
227
FL-22
D+1.4
56%
228
TX-35
D+1.2
56%
229
PA-7
D+0.2
51%
230
MT-1
R+0.2
49%
231
FL-7
R+0.6
47%
232
IA-3
R+0.8
46%
233
WI-1
R+1.3
44%
234
SC-1
R+1.5
43%
235
FL-16
R+1.6
43%
236
PA-10
R+2.2
40%
237
MI-4
R+2.4
39%
238
VA-1
R+2.5
39%
239
TX-23
R+2.7
38%
240
NV-2
R+2.7
38%
241
KY-6
R+3.4
35%
242
OH-10
R+3.4
35%
243
FL-11
R+3.4
35%
244
WI-3
R+3.8
33%
245
PA-8
R+4.1
32%
246
IA-1
R+4.2
32%
247
GA-1
R+4.3
31%
248
MO-2
R+4.9
29%
Many districts share the same margin, so the order
within a tied group is arbitrary.
◀ marks the seat that reaches the majority. Showing
45 of 435 districts.