Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.
A dash means no forecast. “Withheld” means we collect the number but cannot publish it yet. The last column is the range of House margins among the forecasts in each source.
| Source | House margin | House seats | P(D House) | Senate seats | P(D Senate) | Internal spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling | D+8.2 | 232 | 83% | 50 | 31% | D+7.7 to D+9.1 |
| Markets · 3 sources | D+8.6 | 235 | 91% | 51 | 63% | D+8.3 to D+8.8 |
| Academic | D+6.8 | 229 | 61% | 50 | 28% | D+1.8 to D+15.7 |
| Class model | D+9.2 | 236 | 94% | 50 | 41% | — |
| Average of the sources · 3 sources | D+7.9 | 232 | 78% | 50 | 41% | D+6.8 to D+8.6 |
Probabilities are the chance of Democratic control. The Senate needs 51 seats. House seats are out of 435 and Senate seats out of 100. The average of the sources counts each source once and leaves out the class model and any withheld number.
Expected Democratic margin in each competitive seat, in points (cut off at 30). Markets appear only in the chance-of-winning view. Each mark is one source; the grey band runs from the lowest to the highest, and the spread column is the gap in points.
Chance of a Democratic win in each competitive seat. Race polling averages appear only in the margin view. Each mark is one source; the grey band runs from the lowest to the highest, and the spread column is the gap in points.
Competitive seats only. All races are on the contests page.