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Election Forecast Tracker

Six ways of forecasting the 2026 midterms, collected every day and shown side by side. The display is the disagreement between methods, not another trend line.

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-09-09 598 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days. The daily collection may have stopped. Everything below is still the snapshot named above, not today's.

The whole country, 6 ways

A blank cell is a question that method does not answer. “Withheld” is a number we hold but may not publish yet. The last column is the spread inside each family: how far apart its own members are on the House margin. A family with one member has no spread to report.

MethodHouse marginHouse seatsP(D House)Senate seatsP(D Senate)Internal spread
PollingD+6.022465%4917%D+5.0 to D+7.0
Markets · 3 sourcesD+7.723185%5050%D+7.7 to D+7.7
FundamentalsD+8.223467%5038%D+1.8 to D+16.4
ProfessionalD+6.322567%4921%D+5.6 to D+7.0
AcademicD+6.922959%5029%D+1.8 to D+16.4
This classD+8.423683%5039%D+5.5 to D+11.2
All families · 6 familiesD+7.223071%5032%D+6.0 to D+8.4

Every Senate probability is the chance of control, which needs 51 seats. House seats are chamber totals out of 435; Senate seats out of 100.

All families weights each family once, not each forecaster once — otherwise polling’s several aggregators would decide a number the whole table is supposed to share. The spread beside it is the distance between the families, which is disagreement about method — a different thing from any one model’s own uncertainty, and never drawn as an error bar.

A family’s internal spread is shown once it has two members, or three where any of them is a forecast we may not republish individually — at two, the range would be the two forecasts.

Senate, race by race

One line per seat. The band runs from the lowest Democratic win probability any method gives it to the highest; each mark is one method. Ordered by the methods’ median probability, safest Democratic seat first; the spread column at the right is how far apart they are. No per-race number yet from Expert ratings, AI.

0%25%50%75%100%SPREADGA — 6 methods, 8 points apartGA8MN — 6 methods, 10 points apartMN10NH — 6 methods, 17 points apartNH17ME — 6 methods, 33 points apartME33MI — 6 methods, 33 points apartMI33NC — 6 methods, 17 points apartNC17TX — 6 methods, 24 points apartTX24IA — 6 methods, 20 points apartIA20OH — 6 methods, 48 points apartOH48FL — 6 methods, 15 points apartFL15AK — 6 methods, 59 points apartAK59MT — 6 methods, 15 points apartMT15KS — 6 methods, 26 points apartKS26
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class range across methods

Competitive seats only — the model puts every other race outside 1–99%. Widest disagreement today is 59 points; the median seat is 20 apart. Full list on the contests page.

Where the raters disagree

Contest

Each row is one seat; each dot is a rating, sized by how many raters gave it. The 20 shown are the seats the raters argue about most, ordered safest Democratic first, out of 20 where the 11 raters do not all agree; 15 more are unanimous.

Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RNMNM — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketNM — Likely D: RealClearPolitics2 different callsMNMN — Likely D: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketMN — Lean D: The Economist, RealClearPolitics2 different callsGAGA — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketGA — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPoliticsGA — Tilt D: Inside Elections3 different callsNCNC — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketNC — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal BallNC — Tilt D: Inside Elections3 different callsNHNH — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketNH — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal BallNH — Tilt D: Race to the WHNH — Toss-up: Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics4 different callsMIMI — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketMI — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, The Economist, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball2 different callsOHOH — Lean D: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketOH — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball2 different callsMEME — Lean D: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketME — Tilt D: Race to the WHME — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal BallME — Tilt R: Inside Elections4 different callsTXTX — Lean D: Silver Bulletin, Split TicketTX — Tilt D: Race to the WHTX — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal BallTX — Lean R: Inside Elections4 different callsAKAK — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketAK — Tilt R: Inside Elections2 different callsIAIA — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver BulletinIA — Tilt R: Inside ElectionsIA — Lean R: The Economist, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split Ticket3 different callsKSKS — Lean R: The Economist, RealClearPoliticsKS — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different callsNENE — Lean R: Race to the WH, RealClearPoliticsNE — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different callsSCSC — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketSC — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball2 different callsFLFL — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketFL — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball2 different callsMTMT — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, RealClearPoliticsMT — Solid R: Cook Political Report, The Economist, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different callsLALA — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOneLA — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different callsSDSD — Likely R: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WHSD — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different callsMSMS — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, The EconomistMS — Solid R: Cook Political Report, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different callsARAR — Likely R: The EconomistAR — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket2 different calls
Raters: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, The Economist

Ratings are ordinal, and never averaged into the category numbers above. Transcribed from Wikipedia under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Each row is one seat; each dot is a rating, sized by how many raters gave it. The 24 shown are the seats the raters argue about most, ordered safest Democratic first, out of 153 where the 10 raters do not all agree.

Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RNY-04NY-04 — Safe D: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketNY-04 — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power RankingsNY-04 — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal BallNY-04 — Tilt D: Inside Elections4 different callsCA-13CA-13 — Safe D: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketCA-13 — Likely D: Decision Desk HQCA-13 — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal BallCA-13 — Tilt D: Inside Elections4 different callsNE-02NE-02 — Safe D: FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketNE-02 — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, The EconomistNE-02 — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal BallNE-02 — Tilt D: Inside Elections4 different callsNM-02NM-02 — Safe D: Split TicketNM-02 — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Silver BulletinNM-02 — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal BallNM-02 — Tilt D: Inside Elections4 different callsAZ-06AZ-06 — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Split TicketAZ-06 — Lean D: Fox News Power Rankings, Silver BulletinAZ-06 — Tilt D: Race to the WHAZ-06 — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball4 different callsCA-22CA-22 — Likely D: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Silver BulletinCA-22 — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split TicketCA-22 — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power RankingsCA-22 — Tilt R: Inside Elections4 different callsAZ-01AZ-01 — Likely D: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Split TicketAZ-01 — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Silver BulletinAZ-01 — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball3 different callsOH-09OH-09 — Likely D: Split TicketOH-09 — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Silver BulletinOH-09 — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal BallOH-09 — Tilt R: Inside Elections4 different callsFL-14FL-14 — Likely D: The Economist, Silver BulletinFL-14 — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WHFL-14 — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split TicketFL-14 — Tilt R: Inside ElectionsFL-14 — Lean R: Fox News Power Rankings5 different callsMI-07MI-07 — Likely D: FiftyPlusOneMI-07 — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketMI-07 — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, The Economist, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal BallMI-07 — Tilt R: Race to the WH4 different callsNC-01NC-01 — Lean D: Silver BulletinNC-01 — Toss-up: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split TicketNC-01 — Lean R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections3 different callsVA-01VA-01 — Lean D: FiftyPlusOneVA-01 — Toss-up: The Economist, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketVA-01 — Lean R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal BallVA-01 — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ4 different callsIA-02IA-02 — Lean D: The EconomistIA-02 — Toss-up: FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketIA-02 — Lean R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball3 different callsMI-04MI-04 — Lean D: FiftyPlusOneMI-04 — Toss-up: The Economist, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketMI-04 — Lean R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball3 different callsPA-01PA-01 — Likely D: FiftyPlusOnePA-01 — Toss-up: The Economist, Race to the WH, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketPA-01 — Lean R: Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal BallPA-01 — Likely R: Cook Political Report4 different callsFL-22FL-22 — Lean D: Silver BulletinFL-22 — Toss-up: The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WHFL-22 — Tilt R: Inside ElectionsFL-22 — Lean R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split Ticket4 different callsMO-05MO-05 — Solid D: Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Split TicketMO-05 — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Silver BulletinMO-05 — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball3 different callsCO-05CO-05 — Toss-up: FiftyPlusOneCO-05 — Tilt R: Race to the WHCO-05 — Lean R: The Economist, Inside Elections, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketCO-05 — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball4 different callsWI-01WI-01 — Toss-up: The Economist, FiftyPlusOneWI-01 — Lean R: Decision Desk HQ, Race to the WH, Silver BulletinWI-01 — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split TicketWI-01 — Solid R: Inside Elections4 different callsCO-03CO-03 — Toss-up: FiftyPlusOneCO-03 — Lean R: Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, Fox News Power Rankings, Split TicketCO-03 — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin3 different callsAL-02AL-02 — Toss-up: Split TicketAL-02 — Lean R: FiftyPlusOneAL-02 — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin3 different callsCO-04CO-04 — Toss-up: The EconomistCO-04 — Lean R: Race to the WH, Split TicketCO-04 — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinCO-04 — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections4 different callsFL-16FL-16 — Tilt R: Race to the WHFL-16 — Lean R: The Economist, FiftyPlusOneFL-16 — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split TicketFL-16 — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections4 different callsNY-21NY-21 — Tilt R: Race to the WHNY-21 — Lean R: The EconomistNY-21 — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver BulletinNY-21 — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split Ticket4 different calls
Raters: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, The Economist

Ratings are ordinal, and never averaged into the category numbers above. Transcribed from Wikipedia under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Each row is one race; each dot is a rating, sized by how many raters gave it. The 24 shown are the races the raters argue about most, ordered safest Democratic first, out of 27 where the 8 raters do not all agree; 9 more are unanimous. We publish no gubernatorial forecast of our own — a national tide carried through partisan lean describes these races badly — so what other people call them is all this page claims to know.

Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RCTCT — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinCT — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ2 different callsILIL — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinIL — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ2 different callsPAPA — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinPA — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ2 different callsRIRI — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinRI — Likely D: Race to the WH2 different callsCOCO — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinCO — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, Race to the WH2 different callsNYNY — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinNY — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections2 different callsMNMN — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinMN — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections2 different callsNMNM — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinNM — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics2 different callsMEME — Solid D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Silver BulletinME — Likely D: Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball2 different callsOROR — Solid D: RealClearPoliticsOR — Likely D: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinOR — Lean D: Inside Elections, Race to the WH3 different callsMIMI — Likely D: Race to the WH, Silver BulletinMI — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal BallMI — Tilt D: Inside Elections3 different callsAZAZ — Likely D: Silver BulletinAZ — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal BallAZ — Tilt D: Inside Elections3 different callsIAIA — Likely D: Silver BulletinIA — Lean D: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal BallIA — Tilt D: Inside ElectionsIA — Toss-up: Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics4 different callsGAGA — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, Silver BulletinGA — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball2 different callsWIWI — Lean D: Decision Desk HQ, Sabato's Crystal BallWI — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin2 different callsOHOH — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver BulletinOH — Tilt R: Inside ElectionsOH — Lean R: Sabato's Crystal Ball3 different callsNVNV — Toss-up: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPoliticsNV — Tilt R: Inside ElectionsNV — Lean R: Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin3 different callsAKAK — Lean D: Silver BulletinAK — Toss-up: Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal BallAK — Lean R: Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside ElectionsAK — Likely R: Cook Political Report4 different callsKSKS — Toss-up: Silver BulletinKS — Tilt R: Inside Elections, Race to the WHKS — Lean R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball3 different callsFLFL — Lean R: Decision Desk HQ, Race to the WHFL — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinFL — Solid R: Fox News Power Rankings3 different callsNHNH — Lean R: Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPoliticsNH — Likely R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver BulletinNH — Solid R: Inside Elections3 different callsSCSC — Likely R: Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPoliticsSC — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin2 different callsALAL — Likely R: Race to the WHAL — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin2 different callsNENE — Likely R: Decision Desk HQNE — Solid R: Cook Political Report, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin2 different calls
Raters: Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin

Ratings are ordinal, and never averaged into the category numbers above. Transcribed from Wikipedia under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Every contributing model, with links and its current figure where the licence permits, is on the methods page. What each category means, and why some numbers are withheld, is on the about page.

51302 cells are withheld today.