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Election Forecast Tracker

Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-10-12 631 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days. The numbers below are from the snapshot date above.

Forecasts over time

Chamber
Showing
Range

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-12: 227.32026-10-12: 232.9+5.531
Markets2026-09-12: 230.62026-10-12: 233.5+2.931
Academic2026-09-12: 232.62026-10-12: 233.4+0.831
Class model2026-09-12: 235.02026-10-12: 237.0+2.031

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even84%90%69%95%Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-12: 73%2026-10-12: 84%+11 pts31
Markets2026-09-12: 84%2026-10-12: 90%+6 pts31
Academic2026-09-12: 67%2026-10-12: 69%+2 pts31
Class model2026-09-12: 93%2026-10-12: 95%+2 pts31

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-12: 51.32026-10-12: 51.8+0.531
Markets2026-09-12: 50.02026-10-12: 50.7+0.731
Academic2026-09-12: 50.02026-10-12: 50.1+0.131
Class model2026-09-12: 50.02026-10-12: 50.00.031

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even68%63%37%42%Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-12: 64%2026-10-12: 68%+4 pts31
Markets2026-09-12: 49%2026-10-12: 63%+13 pts31
Academic2026-09-12: 34%2026-10-12: 37%+3 pts31
Class model2026-09-12: 38%2026-10-12: 42%+4 pts31

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-13: 225.92026-10-12: 232.9+7.061
Markets2026-08-13: 231.32026-10-12: 233.5+2.261
Academic2026-08-13: 229.52026-10-12: 233.4+3.961
Class model2026-08-13: 233.02026-10-12: 237.0+4.061

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even84%90%69%95%Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-13: 69%2026-10-12: 84%+15 pts61
Markets2026-08-13: 86%2026-10-12: 90%+4 pts61
Academic2026-08-13: 63%2026-10-12: 69%+6 pts61
Class model2026-08-13: 91%2026-10-12: 95%+4 pts61

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-13: 49.62026-10-12: 51.8+2.261
Markets2026-08-13: 49.92026-10-12: 50.7+0.961
Academic2026-08-13: 49.72026-10-12: 50.1+0.461
Class model2026-08-13: 50.02026-10-12: 50.00.061

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even68%63%37%42%Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-13: 38%2026-10-12: 68%+31 pts61
Markets2026-08-13: 48%2026-10-12: 63%+14 pts61
Academic2026-08-13: 32%2026-10-12: 37%+5 pts61
Class model2026-08-13: 36%2026-10-12: 42%+6 pts61

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 224.72026-10-12: 232.9+8.2285
Markets2026-01-01: 227.32026-10-12: 233.5+6.2285
Academic2026-01-01: 230.42026-10-12: 233.4+3.0285
Class model2026-01-01: 228.02026-10-12: 237.0+9.0285

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even84%90%69%95%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 64%2026-10-12: 84%+20 pts285
Markets2026-01-01: 77%2026-10-12: 90%+13 pts285
Academic2026-01-01: 67%2026-10-12: 69%+2 pts285
Class model2026-01-01: 86%2026-10-12: 95%+9 pts285

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 48.42026-10-12: 51.8+3.4285
Markets2026-01-01: 49.42026-10-12: 50.7+1.4285
Academic2026-01-01: 49.02026-10-12: 50.1+1.1285
Class model2026-01-01: 49.02026-10-12: 50.0+1.0285

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even68%63%37%42%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 12%2026-10-12: 68%+56 pts285
Markets2026-01-01: 32%2026-10-12: 63%+30 pts285
Academic2026-01-01: 26%2026-10-12: 37%+11 pts285
Class model2026-01-01: 22%2026-10-12: 42%+20 pts285

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 216.72026-10-12: 232.9+16.1631
Markets2025-09-14: 223.52026-10-12: 233.5+10.0394
Academic2025-01-20: 225.52026-10-12: 233.4+7.9631
Class model2025-02-25: 226.02026-10-12: 237.0+11.0595

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even84%90%69%95%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 49%2026-10-12: 84%+35 pts631
Markets2025-07-19: 70%2026-10-12: 90%+19 pts451
Academic2025-01-20: 61%2026-10-12: 69%+8 pts631
Class model2025-02-25: 82%2026-10-12: 95%+12 pts595

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 47.22026-10-12: 51.8+4.6631
Markets2025-12-21: 49.42026-10-12: 50.7+1.3296
Academic2025-01-20: 48.32026-10-12: 50.1+1.8631
Class model2025-02-25: 48.02026-10-12: 50.0+2.0595

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even68%63%37%42%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 9%2026-10-12: 68%+59 pts631
Markets2025-07-19: 25%2026-10-12: 63%+37 pts451
Academic2025-01-20: 20%2026-10-12: 37%+18 pts631
Class model2025-02-25: 17%2026-10-12: 42%+25 pts595

The class model is the forecast built in PLSC 2219, re-run each day with that day's presidential approval, gas prices and real income. Details, charts and races →

Where the forecasts stand today

Chamber

Democratic House seats, of 435. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

220240260Polling6 sources: 231–238233Markets3 sources: 233–234234Academic6 sources: 210–266233Class modelone source237

National House margin

D+5D+10D+15Polling6 sources: 7.8 to 9.6D+8.4Markets3 sources: 8.0 to 9.2D+8.4Academic6 sources: 1.8 to 15.7D+8.0Class modelone sourceD+9.4

The markets figure comes from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts on the national popular-vote margin.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

485052Polling6 sources: 52–5252Markets2 sources: 51–5151Academic6 sources: 47–5450Class modelone source50

What has moved

Change in the national House margin, in points.

SourceToday30 days90 dayssince it began
PollingD+8.4+1.7 D+2.7 D+6.1 D
MarketsD+8.4+0.6 D+2.7 D+0.6 D
AcademicD+8.0+0.2 D+1.2 D+4.0 D