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Election Forecast Tracker

Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, professional forecasters, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-09-30 619 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days. The numbers below are from the snapshot date above.

Forecasts over time

Chamber
Showing
Range

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority232235229236Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-31: 225.02026-09-30: 232.3+7.331
Markets2026-08-31: 230.12026-09-30: 234.6+4.531
Academic2026-08-31: 228.32026-09-30: 228.8+0.531
Class model2026-08-31: 233.02026-09-30: 236.0+3.031

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even83%91%61%94%Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-31: 67%2026-09-30: 83%+16 pts31
Markets2026-08-31: 84%2026-09-30: 91%+6 pts31
Academic2026-08-31: 57%2026-09-30: 61%+4 pts31
Class model2026-08-31: 90%2026-09-30: 94%+4 pts31

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority50515050Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-31: 49.22026-09-30: 49.9+0.731
Markets2026-08-31: 50.02026-09-30: 50.9+0.831
Academic2026-08-31: 49.62026-09-30: 49.6-0.031
Class model2026-08-31: 50.02026-09-30: 50.00.031

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even31%63%28%41%Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-31: 18%2026-09-30: 31%+13 pts31
Markets2026-08-31: 50%2026-09-30: 63%+13 pts31
Academic2026-08-31: 28%2026-09-30: 28%+0 pts31
Class model2026-08-31: 36%2026-09-30: 41%+5 pts31

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority232235229236Aug 2026SepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-01: 223.82026-09-30: 232.3+8.561
Markets2026-08-01: 229.62026-09-30: 234.6+4.961
Academic2026-08-01: 226.82026-09-30: 228.8+2.061
Class model2026-08-01: 232.02026-09-30: 236.0+4.061

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even83%91%61%94%Aug 2026SepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-01: 64%2026-09-30: 83%+19 pts61
Markets2026-08-01: 83%2026-09-30: 91%+8 pts61
Academic2026-08-01: 57%2026-09-30: 61%+5 pts61
Class model2026-08-01: 89%2026-09-30: 94%+5 pts61

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority50515050Aug 2026SepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-01: 49.12026-09-30: 49.9+0.861
Markets2026-08-01: 49.82026-09-30: 50.9+1.161
Academic2026-08-01: 49.42026-09-30: 49.6+0.261
Class model2026-08-01: 50.02026-09-30: 50.00.061

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even31%63%28%41%Aug 2026SepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-01: 16%2026-09-30: 31%+14 pts61
Markets2026-08-01: 44%2026-09-30: 63%+19 pts61
Academic2026-08-01: 28%2026-09-30: 28%+1 pts61
Class model2026-08-01: 34%2026-09-30: 41%+7 pts61

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority232235229236Jan 2026MarMayJulSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 224.72026-09-30: 232.3+7.7273
Markets2026-01-01: 227.32026-09-30: 234.6+7.2273
Academic2026-01-01: 227.42026-09-30: 228.8+1.4273
Class model2026-01-01: 228.02026-09-30: 236.0+8.0273

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even83%91%61%94%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 64%2026-09-30: 83%+19 pts273
Markets2026-01-01: 77%2026-09-30: 91%+13 pts273
Academic2026-01-01: 62%2026-09-30: 61%-1 pts273
Class model2026-01-01: 86%2026-09-30: 94%+8 pts273

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority50515050Jan 2026MarMayJulSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 48.42026-09-30: 49.9+1.5273
Markets2026-01-01: 49.42026-09-30: 50.9+1.5273
Academic2026-01-01: 48.72026-09-30: 49.6+0.9273
Class model2026-01-01: 49.02026-09-30: 50.0+1.0273

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even31%63%28%41%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 12%2026-09-30: 31%+19 pts273
Markets2026-01-01: 32%2026-09-30: 63%+30 pts273
Academic2026-01-01: 23%2026-09-30: 28%+6 pts273
Class model2026-01-01: 22%2026-09-30: 41%+19 pts273

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority232235229236Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 216.72026-09-30: 232.3+15.6619
Markets2025-09-14: 223.52026-09-30: 234.6+11.0382
Academic2025-01-20: 225.92026-09-30: 228.8+2.9619
Class model2025-02-25: 226.02026-09-30: 236.0+10.0583

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even83%91%61%94%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 49%2026-09-30: 83%+34 pts619
Markets2025-07-19: 70%2026-09-30: 91%+20 pts439
Academic2025-01-20: 61%2026-09-30: 61%+0 pts619
Class model2025-02-25: 83%2026-09-30: 94%+12 pts583

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority50515050Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 47.22026-09-30: 49.9+2.7619
Markets2025-12-21: 49.42026-09-30: 50.9+1.5284
Academic2025-01-20: 48.32026-09-30: 49.6+1.3619
Class model2025-02-25: 48.02026-09-30: 50.0+2.0583

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even31%63%28%41%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 9%2026-09-30: 31%+21 pts619
Markets2025-07-19: 25%2026-09-30: 63%+38 pts439
Academic2025-01-20: 21%2026-09-30: 28%+7 pts619
Class model2025-02-25: 17%2026-09-30: 41%+23 pts583

The class model is the forecast built in PLSC 2219, re-run each day with that day's presidential approval, gas prices and real income. Details, charts and races →

Where the forecasts stand today

Chamber

Democratic House seats, of 435. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

220240260Polling6 sources: 231–236232Marketsone source235Academic5 sources: 210–266229Class modelone source236

National House margin

D+5D+10D+15Polling6 sources: 7.7 to 9.1D+8.2Markets2 sources: 8.3 to 8.8D+8.6Academic5 sources: 1.8 to 15.7D+6.8Class modelone sourceD+9.2

The markets figure comes from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts on the national popular-vote margin.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

485052Polling6 sources: 50–5050Marketsone source51Academic5 sources: 47–5450Class modelone source50

What has moved

Change in the national House margin, in points.

SourceToday30 days90 dayssince it began
PollingD+8.2+1.9 D+2.5 D+5.9 D
MarketsD+8.6+0.8 D+1.3 D+0.8 D
AcademicD+6.8+0.1 D+0.4 D+2.7 D