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Election Forecast Tracker

Six ways of forecasting the 2026 midterms, collected every day and shown side by side. The display is the disagreement between methods, not another trend line.

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-09-09 598 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days. The daily collection may have stopped. Everything below is still the snapshot named above, not today's.

3 ways of forecasting4 kinds of forecaster, one chart

Chamber
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Range

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority224231234225229236Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-10: 224.22026-09-09: 224.2-0.131
Markets2026-08-10: 230.02026-09-09: 230.7+0.731
Fundamentals2026-08-10: 232.52026-09-09: 234.1+1.631
Professional2026-08-10: 227.02026-09-09: 225.1-1.931
Academic2026-08-10: 226.82026-09-09: 229.2+2.431
This class2026-08-10: 232.42026-09-09: 235.5+3.131

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even65%85%67%67%59%83%Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-10: 65%2026-09-09: 65%+1 pts31
Markets2026-08-10: 84%2026-09-09: 85%+1 pts31
Fundamentals2026-08-10: 67%2026-09-09: 67%+1 pts31
Professional2026-08-10: 71%2026-09-09: 67%-4 pts31
Academic2026-08-10: 57%2026-09-09: 59%+3 pts31
This class2026-08-10: 75%2026-09-09: 83%+8 pts31

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

4850525551 — a majority495050495050Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-10: 49.12026-09-09: 49.1+0.031
Markets2026-08-10: 49.92026-09-09: 50.1+0.231
Fundamentals2026-08-10: 50.02026-09-09: 50.2+0.231
Professional2026-08-10: 49.52026-09-09: 49.3-0.231
Academic2026-08-10: 49.42026-09-09: 49.7+0.331
This class2026-08-10: 50.02026-09-09: 50.3+0.331

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

25%50%75%even17%50%38%21%29%39%Aug 2026Sep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-10: 18%2026-09-09: 17%-1 pts31
Markets2026-08-10: 47%2026-09-09: 50%+3 pts31
Fundamentals2026-08-10: 37%2026-09-09: 38%+1 pts31
Professional2026-08-10: 24%2026-09-09: 21%-3 pts31
Academic2026-08-10: 28%2026-09-09: 29%+1 pts31
This class2026-08-10: 33%2026-09-09: 39%+7 pts31

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority224231234225229236Jul 2026AugSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-07-11: 221.12026-09-09: 224.2+3.061
Markets2026-07-11: 229.12026-09-09: 230.7+1.661
Fundamentals2026-07-11: 232.32026-09-09: 234.1+1.861
Professional2026-07-11: 223.42026-09-09: 225.1+1.761
Academic2026-07-11: 226.22026-09-09: 229.2+3.061
This class2026-07-11: 231.92026-09-09: 235.5+3.661

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even65%85%67%67%59%83%Jul 2026AugSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-07-11: 57%2026-09-09: 65%+8 pts61
Markets2026-07-11: 81%2026-09-09: 85%+4 pts61
Fundamentals2026-07-11: 66%2026-09-09: 67%+1 pts61
Professional2026-07-11: 62%2026-09-09: 67%+5 pts61
Academic2026-07-11: 56%2026-09-09: 59%+4 pts61
This class2026-07-11: 73%2026-09-09: 83%+10 pts61

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

4850525551 — a majority495050495050Jul 2026AugSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-07-11: 48.82026-09-09: 49.1+0.361
Markets2026-07-11: 49.32026-09-09: 50.1+0.861
Fundamentals2026-07-11: 50.02026-09-09: 50.2+0.261
Professional2026-07-11: 49.12026-09-09: 49.3+0.261
Academic2026-07-11: 49.32026-09-09: 49.7+0.461
This class2026-07-11: 49.92026-09-09: 50.3+0.461

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

25%50%75%even17%50%38%21%29%39%Jul 2026AugSepSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-07-11: 13%2026-09-09: 17%+4 pts61
Markets2026-07-11: 40%2026-09-09: 50%+10 pts61
Fundamentals2026-07-11: 37%2026-09-09: 38%+1 pts61
Professional2026-07-11: 18%2026-09-09: 21%+3 pts61
Academic2026-07-11: 27%2026-09-09: 29%+2 pts61
This class2026-07-11: 32%2026-09-09: 39%+7 pts61

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority224231234225229236Jan 2026MarMayJulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 224.32026-09-09: 224.2-0.2252
Markets2026-01-01: 227.32026-09-09: 230.7+3.4252
Fundamentals2026-01-01: 231.92026-09-09: 234.1+2.3252
Professional2026-01-01: 224.92026-09-09: 225.1+0.2252
Academic2026-01-01: 227.42026-09-09: 229.2+1.9252
This class2026-01-01: 234.32026-09-09: 235.5+1.2252

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even65%85%67%67%59%83%Jan 2026MarMayJulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 63%2026-09-09: 65%+2 pts252
Markets2026-01-01: 77%2026-09-09: 85%+7 pts252
Fundamentals2026-01-01: 68%2026-09-09: 67%-1 pts252
Professional2026-01-01: 64%2026-09-09: 67%+4 pts252
Academic2026-01-01: 62%2026-09-09: 59%-3 pts252
This class2026-01-01: 77%2026-09-09: 83%+6 pts252

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

4850525551 — a majority495050495050Jan 2026MarMayJulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 48.42026-09-09: 49.1+0.7252
Markets2026-01-01: 49.42026-09-09: 50.1+0.7252
Fundamentals2026-01-01: 49.22026-09-09: 50.2+1.1252
Professional2026-01-01: 48.52026-09-09: 49.3+0.9252
Academic2026-01-01: 48.72026-09-09: 49.7+1.0252
This class2026-01-01: 49.52026-09-09: 50.3+0.8252

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

25%50%75%even17%50%38%21%29%39%Jan 2026MarMayJulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 12%2026-09-09: 17%+5 pts252
Markets2026-01-01: 32%2026-09-09: 50%+18 pts252
Fundamentals2026-01-01: 29%2026-09-09: 38%+9 pts252
Professional2026-01-01: 14%2026-09-09: 21%+7 pts252
Academic2026-01-01: 23%2026-09-09: 29%+6 pts252
This class2026-01-01: 27%2026-09-09: 39%+13 pts252

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority224231234225229236Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 213.62026-09-09: 224.2+10.6598
Markets2025-09-14: 223.52026-09-09: 230.7+7.2361
Fundamentals2025-01-20: 229.02026-09-09: 234.1+5.1598
Professional2025-01-20: 218.82026-09-09: 225.1+6.4598
Academic2025-01-20: 225.02026-09-09: 229.2+4.2598
This class2025-01-20: 213.22026-09-09: 235.5+22.3598

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even65%85%67%67%59%83%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 42%2026-09-09: 65%+23 pts598
Markets2025-07-19: 70%2026-09-09: 85%+14 pts418
Fundamentals2025-01-20: 68%2026-09-09: 67%-0 pts598
Professional2025-01-20: 51%2026-09-09: 67%+16 pts598
Academic2025-01-20: 60%2026-09-09: 59%-1 pts598
This class2025-01-20: 43%2026-09-09: 83%+40 pts598

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

4850525551 — a majority495050495050Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 47.02026-09-09: 49.1+2.1598
Markets2025-12-21: 49.42026-09-09: 50.1+0.7263
Fundamentals2025-01-20: 48.82026-09-09: 50.2+1.4598
Professional2025-01-20: 47.92026-09-09: 49.3+1.4598
Academic2025-01-20: 48.32026-09-09: 49.7+1.4598
This class2025-01-20: 46.62026-09-09: 50.3+3.6598

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

25%50%75%even17%50%38%21%29%39%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulSep 2026
Polling Markets Fundamentals Professional Academic This class
See the numbers
MethodFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 7%2026-09-09: 17%+10 pts598
Markets2025-07-19: 25%2026-09-09: 50%+25 pts418
Fundamentals2025-01-20: 24%2026-09-09: 38%+14 pts598
Professional2025-01-20: 12%2026-09-09: 21%+9 pts598
Academic2025-01-20: 21%2026-09-09: 29%+8 pts598
This class2025-01-20: 11%2026-09-09: 39%+29 pts598

Every point of every series is in the data page as CSV, along with what each source said on each date.

Where the methods stand today

Chamber

Democratic House seats, of 435. A bar is the spread between the sources in that method — how far apart they are today, not how uncertain any one of them is. A bare dot means the method has one contributor, which cannot disagree with itself. For what a single model says about its own uncertainty, see the methods page: each states an 80% interval, and those are wider than anything drawn here.

220240260Polling7 sources: 220–227224Marketsone source231Fundamentals5 sources: 209–270234Professional5 sources: 222–229225Academic5 sources: 209–270229This class2 sources: 226–245236

National House margin

D+5D+10D+15Polling8 sources: 5.0 to 7.0D+6.0Markets2 sources: 7.7 to 7.7D+7.7Fundamentals5 sources: 1.8 to 16.4D+8.2Professional6 sources: 5.6 to 7.0D+6.3Academic5 sources: 1.8 to 16.4D+6.9This class2 sources: 5.5 to 11.2D+8.4

The markets figure comes from the national popular-vote margin ladders on Kalshi and Polymarket — a row of contracts priced on 2-point buckets, read as a distribution rather than as a price. It is the only market-implied vote share there is: a chamber-control price implies a winner, not a margin. How a ladder is read →

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A bar is the spread between the sources in that method — how far apart they are today, not how uncertain any one of them is. A bare dot means the method has one contributor, which cannot disagree with itself. For what a single model says about its own uncertainty, see the methods page: each states an 80% interval, and those are wider than anything drawn here.

48505255Polling7 sources: 49–4949Marketsone source50Fundamentals5 sources: 47–5450Professional5 sources: 49–5049Academic5 sources: 47–5450This class2 sources: 49–5150

What has moved

Change in the national House margin, in points. Measured against the newest published value at or before each date, never an interpolation. A family with nothing that far back gets no figure rather than a zero.

MethodToday30 days90 dayssince it began
PollingD+6.0+0.1 R+0.5 D+4.1 D
MarketsD+7.70.0+0.7 D+0.1 R
FundamentalsD+8.2+0.3 D+0.5 D+2.9 D
ProfessionalD+6.3+0.5 R+0.3 D+2.6 D
AcademicD+6.9+0.6 D+0.6 D+2.8 D
This classD+8.4+0.2 D+0.7 D+7.9 D

Each cell says which way the margin moved, not which party is ahead — “+1.2 D” means the Democratic margin grew by 1.2 points from whatever it was. Hover any figure for the date it was measured from.

The models on this site

Built in PLSC 2219 from public-domain inputs and published in full. Every choice inside them is here.

Fundamentals
National House margin
D+11.2
80% interval 5.4 to 17.1

Approval, real income growth and seats defended, fit on 20 midterms 1946–2022.

Polling
Senate seats
49 of 100
80% interval 47–51 · 51 for a majority

A nowcast: the generic ballot as it stands, D+6.7, carried to each state by partisan lean. Not a projection of November — that is the point, because it leaves room to watch whether polling drifts toward the fundamentals line over the autumn; shrinking it by λ=0.91 would give D+6.1.

Race by race →

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