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Election Forecast Tracker

Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily through Election Day 2026.

By Kevin DeLuca, Department of Political Science, Yale University

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-11-10 660 dates on the chart
This tracker is retired. Its final update was on November 3, 2026, and the numbers on these pages are from that snapshot. For the PLSC 2219 forecast contest, see the forecast gallery.

Forecasts over time

Chamber
Showing
Range

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233247232237Oct 2026Nov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-10-11: 233.02026-11-10: 233.3+0.331
Markets2026-10-11: 233.72026-11-10: 247.2+13.531
Academic2026-10-11: 233.52026-11-10: 232.5-1.131
Class model2026-10-11: 237.02026-11-01: 237.00.021

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even86%96%67%95%Oct 2026Nov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-10-11: 84%2026-11-10: 86%+2 pts31
Markets2026-10-11: 89%2026-11-10: 96%+6 pts31
Academic2026-10-11: 69%2026-11-10: 67%-1 pt31
Class model2026-10-11: 95%2026-11-01: 95%+0 pts21

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority53535050Oct 2026Nov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-10-11: 51.82026-11-10: 52.7+0.931
Markets2026-10-11: 50.62026-11-10: 52.7+2.131
Academic2026-10-11: 50.12026-11-10: 50.0-0.131
Class model2026-10-11: 50.02026-11-01: 50.00.021

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%50%100%even76%83%36%43%Oct 2026Nov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-10-11: 68%2026-11-10: 76%+9 pts31
Markets2026-10-11: 62%2026-11-10: 83%+21 pts31
Academic2026-10-11: 37%2026-11-10: 36%-2 pts31
Class model2026-10-11: 42%2026-11-01: 43%+1 pt21

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233247232237Sep 2026OctNovNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-11: 226.82026-11-10: 233.3+6.561
Markets2026-09-11: 230.52026-11-10: 247.2+16.761
Academic2026-09-11: 232.62026-11-10: 232.5-0.161
Class model2026-09-11: 235.02026-11-01: 237.0+2.051

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even86%96%67%95%Sep 2026OctNovNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-11: 72%2026-11-10: 86%+14 pts61
Markets2026-09-11: 84%2026-11-10: 96%+12 pts61
Academic2026-09-11: 67%2026-11-10: 67%+0 pts61
Class model2026-09-11: 93%2026-11-01: 95%+2 pts51

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority53535050Sep 2026OctNovNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-11: 50.92026-11-10: 52.7+1.861
Markets2026-09-11: 50.02026-11-10: 52.7+2.761
Academic2026-09-11: 50.02026-11-10: 50.0-0.061
Class model2026-09-11: 50.02026-11-01: 50.00.051

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%50%100%even76%83%36%43%Sep 2026OctNovNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-11: 60%2026-11-10: 76%+16 pts61
Markets2026-09-11: 50%2026-11-10: 83%+33 pts61
Academic2026-09-11: 34%2026-11-10: 36%+1 pt61
Class model2026-09-11: 38%2026-11-01: 43%+4 pts51

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233247232237Jan 2026MarMayJulSepNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 224.72026-11-10: 233.3+8.6314
Markets2026-01-01: 227.32026-11-10: 247.2+19.9314
Academic2026-01-01: 230.42026-11-10: 232.5+2.0314
Class model2026-01-01: 228.02026-11-01: 237.0+9.0304

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even86%96%67%95%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 64%2026-11-10: 86%+22 pts314
Markets2026-01-01: 77%2026-11-10: 96%+18 pts314
Academic2026-01-01: 67%2026-11-10: 67%+0 pts314
Class model2026-01-01: 86%2026-11-01: 95%+10 pts304

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority53535050Jan 2026MarMayJulSepNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 48.42026-11-10: 52.7+4.3314
Markets2026-01-01: 49.42026-11-10: 52.7+3.3314
Academic2026-01-01: 49.02026-11-10: 50.0+1.0314
Class model2026-01-01: 49.02026-11-01: 50.0+1.0304

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%50%100%even76%83%36%43%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 12%2026-11-10: 76%+64 pts314
Markets2026-01-01: 32%2026-11-10: 83%+50 pts314
Academic2026-01-01: 26%2026-11-10: 36%+10 pts314
Class model2026-01-01: 22%2026-11-01: 43%+21 pts304

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233247232237Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 216.72026-11-10: 233.3+16.6660
Markets2025-09-14: 223.52026-11-10: 247.2+23.7423
Academic2025-01-20: 225.52026-11-10: 232.5+7.0660
Class model2025-02-25: 226.02026-11-01: 237.0+11.0614

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even86%96%67%95%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 49%2026-11-10: 86%+37 pts660
Markets2025-07-19: 70%2026-11-10: 96%+25 pts480
Academic2025-01-20: 61%2026-11-10: 67%+6 pts660
Class model2025-02-25: 82%2026-11-01: 95%+13 pts614

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority53535050Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 47.22026-11-10: 52.7+5.5660
Markets2025-12-21: 49.42026-11-10: 52.7+3.3325
Academic2025-01-20: 48.32026-11-10: 50.0+1.7660
Class model2025-02-25: 48.02026-11-01: 50.0+2.0614

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%50%100%even76%83%36%43%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulNov 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model · last 2026-11-01

Class model last updated on 2026-11-01 and is drawn faded.

See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 9%2026-11-10: 76%+67 pts660
Markets2025-07-19: 25%2026-11-10: 83%+57 pts480
Academic2025-01-20: 20%2026-11-10: 36%+16 pts660
Class model2025-02-25: 17%2026-11-01: 43%+26 pts614

The class model is the forecast built in PLSC 2219, re-run each day with that day's presidential approval, gas prices and real income. Details, charts and races →

Where the forecasts stand today

Chamber

Democratic House seats, of 435. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

220240260Polling6 sources: 231–235233Markets3 sources: 242–251247Academic6 sources: 208–267232Class modelas of 2026-11-01237

National House margin

D+5D+10D+15Polling6 sources: 7.9 to 8.8D+8.4Markets3 sources: 12.9 to 14.7D+14.1Academic6 sources: 1.3 to 15.9D+7.7Class modelas of 2026-11-01D+9.6

The markets figure comes from Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt contracts on the national popular-vote margin.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

485052Pollingone source53Markets2 sources: 52–5353Academic6 sources: 47–5450Class modelas of 2026-11-0150

What has moved

Change in the national House margin, in points.

SourceToday30 days90 dayssince it began
PollingD+8.4+0.1 R+1.9 D+6.1 D
MarketsD+14.1+5.6 D+6.5 D+6.3 D
AcademicD+7.7+0.3 R+0.6 D+3.7 D