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Election Forecast Tracker

Forecasts of the 2026 midterm elections from polls, prediction markets, academic models and the PLSC 2219 class model, updated daily.

Election day 3 Nov 2026 — days out Snapshot 2026-10-20 639 dates on the chart
This page has not updated in days. The numbers below are from the snapshot date above.

Forecasts over time

Chamber
Showing
Range

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-20: 231.22026-10-20: 232.7+1.531
Markets2026-09-20: 233.22026-10-20: 234.4+1.231
Academic2026-09-20: 232.62026-10-20: 233.1+0.531
Class model2026-09-20: 235.02026-10-20: 237.0+2.031

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even85%91%68%95%Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-20: 81%2026-10-20: 85%+4 pts31
Markets2026-09-20: 89%2026-10-20: 91%+2 pts31
Academic2026-09-20: 68%2026-10-20: 68%+1 pt31
Class model2026-09-20: 93%2026-10-20: 95%+2 pts31

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-20: 51.42026-10-20: 52.2+0.831
Markets2026-09-20: 51.02026-10-20: 50.9-0.131
Academic2026-09-20: 50.02026-10-20: 50.0+0.131
Class model2026-09-20: 50.02026-10-20: 50.00.031

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even69%64%37%43%Sep 2026Oct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-09-20: 63%2026-10-20: 69%+7 pts31
Markets2026-09-20: 62%2026-10-20: 64%+2 pts31
Academic2026-09-20: 35%2026-10-20: 37%+1 pt31
Class model2026-09-20: 38%2026-10-20: 43%+5 pts31

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-21: 224.22026-10-20: 232.7+8.661
Markets2026-08-21: 230.02026-10-20: 234.4+4.461
Academic2026-08-21: 229.42026-10-20: 233.1+3.761
Class model2026-08-21: 233.02026-10-20: 237.0+4.061

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even85%91%68%95%Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-21: 65%2026-10-20: 85%+19 pts61
Markets2026-08-21: 83%2026-10-20: 91%+8 pts61
Academic2026-08-21: 63%2026-10-20: 68%+6 pts61
Class model2026-08-21: 91%2026-10-20: 95%+4 pts61

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-21: 50.52026-10-20: 52.2+1.761
Markets2026-08-21: 49.92026-10-20: 50.9+1.061
Academic2026-08-21: 49.72026-10-20: 50.0+0.461
Class model2026-08-21: 50.02026-10-20: 50.00.061

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even69%64%37%43%Aug 2026SepOctOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-08-21: 54%2026-10-20: 69%+15 pts61
Markets2026-08-21: 48%2026-10-20: 64%+16 pts61
Academic2026-08-21: 32%2026-10-20: 37%+5 pts61
Class model2026-08-21: 37%2026-10-20: 43%+6 pts61

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 224.72026-10-20: 232.7+8.1293
Markets2026-01-01: 227.32026-10-20: 234.4+7.1293
Academic2026-01-01: 230.42026-10-20: 233.1+2.7293
Class model2026-01-01: 228.02026-10-20: 237.0+9.0293

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even85%91%68%95%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 64%2026-10-20: 85%+21 pts293
Markets2026-01-01: 77%2026-10-20: 91%+14 pts293
Academic2026-01-01: 67%2026-10-20: 68%+1 pt293
Class model2026-01-01: 86%2026-10-20: 95%+9 pts293

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 48.42026-10-20: 52.2+3.7293
Markets2026-01-01: 49.42026-10-20: 50.9+1.5293
Academic2026-01-01: 49.02026-10-20: 50.0+1.0293
Class model2026-01-01: 49.02026-10-20: 50.0+1.0293

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even69%64%37%43%Jan 2026MarMayJulSepOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2026-01-01: 12%2026-10-20: 69%+57 pts293
Markets2026-01-01: 32%2026-10-20: 64%+32 pts293
Academic2026-01-01: 26%2026-10-20: 37%+10 pts293
Class model2026-01-01: 22%2026-10-20: 43%+21 pts293

Democratic House seats, of 435.

220240260218 — a majority233234233237Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 216.72026-10-20: 232.7+16.0639
Markets2025-09-14: 223.52026-10-20: 234.4+10.9402
Academic2025-01-20: 225.52026-10-20: 233.1+7.6639
Class model2025-02-25: 226.02026-10-20: 237.0+11.0603

Chance of a Democratic House.

50%75%100%even85%91%68%95%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 49%2026-10-20: 85%+36 pts639
Markets2025-07-19: 70%2026-10-20: 91%+21 pts459
Academic2025-01-20: 61%2026-10-20: 68%+7 pts639
Class model2025-02-25: 82%2026-10-20: 95%+13 pts603

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

48505251 — a majority52515050Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 47.22026-10-20: 52.2+5.0639
Markets2025-12-21: 49.42026-10-20: 50.9+1.5304
Academic2025-01-20: 48.32026-10-20: 50.0+1.8639
Class model2025-02-25: 48.02026-10-20: 50.0+2.0603

Chance of a Democratic Senate. A majority needs 51: a 50–50 tie is broken by the vice-president, who is a Republican this cycle.

0%25%50%75%even69%64%37%43%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulOct 2026
Polling Markets Academic Class model
See the numbers
SourceFirstLatestChangePoints
Polling2025-01-20: 9%2026-10-20: 69%+60 pts639
Markets2025-07-19: 25%2026-10-20: 64%+39 pts459
Academic2025-01-20: 20%2026-10-20: 37%+17 pts639
Class model2025-02-25: 17%2026-10-20: 43%+26 pts603

The class model is the forecast built in PLSC 2219, re-run each day with that day's presidential approval, gas prices and real income. Details, charts and races →

Where the forecasts stand today

Chamber

Democratic House seats, of 435. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

220240260Polling6 sources: 231–236233Markets3 sources: 234–235234Academic6 sources: 210–266233Class modelone source237

National House margin

D+5D+10D+15Polling6 sources: 7.8 to 9.1D+8.3Markets3 sources: 8.2 to 8.6D+8.5Academic6 sources: 1.8 to 15.8D+7.9Class modelone sourceD+9.5

The markets figure comes from Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt contracts on the national popular-vote margin.

Democratic Senate seats, of 100. The dot is the average for each source type. The bar shows the range across the forecasts in it.

485052Polling6 sources: 52–5252Markets2 sources: 51–5151Academic6 sources: 47–5450Class modelone source50

What has moved

Change in the national House margin, in points.

SourceToday30 days90 dayssince it began
PollingD+8.3+0.4 D+2.9 D+6.0 D
MarketsD+8.5+0.3 D+1.3 D+0.7 D
AcademicD+7.9+0.1 D+0.9 D+3.9 D